CRIST NOT GETTING HEAVY INDY SUPPORT – AT 8:39 P.M. ET:  One of the big political questions right now is whether Republican Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, trailing badly behind Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate primary, will run as an independent in November.  A recent poll showed Crist would win a three-man race, but would edge out Rubio only by a few points.

Republicans are not rushing to Crist's side:

Some of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s top fundraisers are warning that they will no longer support him if he bolts the Republican Party to run for the Senate as an independent.

It's not entirely clear what his intentions are, but with his veto Thursday of an education reform bill favored by Republicans and repeated refusal all week to say whether he still would seek the GOP nomination, Crist has ratcheted speculation to a fever pitch.

He has until April 30 to decide whether he’ll stay in a primary in which he trails former state House Speaker Marco Rubio by over 20 points or pursue a third-party candidacy.

If he abandons the GOP race, a group of his most prominent supporters indicate they will not follow him.

“I’m a Republican and I’m going to support the Republican candidate,” said John Rood, the state GOP finance chairman, a former ambassador to the Bahamas and one of Florida’s biggest contributors to Republican causes.

COMMENT:   I suspect that Republican elders will have some heart-to-hearts with Crist, who has no chance of winning the GOP Senate primary.  He's 23 points down.  Discussions like this often involve words like "judgeship" and "ambassadorship." 

Rubio should win easily over the Dem candidate, with Crist out of the race.  Crist will, during these heart-to-hearts, be reminded of what will happen to him if he becomes the spoiler and allows the Dem to win.  There are political equivalents to "sleeping with the fishes." 

My guess is that Crist will graciously withdraw and endorse Rubio, even offering to campaign for him.  Then he will have a political future, guaranteed.

April 18, 2010